Since Thursday, I have been predicting a McCain victory today, and here’s why:
1. Although the polls are showing about a 48%-43% lead by Obama (with some polls saying his lead is actually bigger than that) the truth is that those are national polls, and Obama’s lead in some of the key swing and battleground states is actually closer than that. The national polls are actually skewed by virtue of the fact that Obama’s lead in big populous states like New York and California is greater than 55-45. That means in smaller and key states, the numbers are much closer. In many states Obama’s lead is within the margin of error.
2. In many of the battleground states, the number of undecided voters is estimated as between 6-10%. I believe that that number is grossly understated. (People are embarrassed to say that after all this campaigning they are still undecided.) It is probably closer to 8-14%. Undecideds typically cast their vote conservatively. That does not mean for politically conservatives; that means for the more mainstream candidate. McCain will get the lion’s share of these votes.
3. Racism is still a factor in America, and in particular in our electoral process, even if it shouldn’t be. More importantly, it is a factor in our polling process. Studies show that in an election between a white candidate and a candidate of color about 5% of those polled who say they will vote for the person of color actually pull the lever for the other candidate. But that occurs in smaller, more “intimate” elections like those for city council and state assembly. I believe that due to all the hoopla about Obama’s candidacy and the sensitive issue of race in this election, 8-12% of those polled are lying to pollsters afraid or embarrassed to say they are not voting for Obama. That will be a MAJOR factor in the difference between the polls of the last few days and the exit polls in particular, on one side and the actually tallied results on the other. Expect major differences and major surprises.
4. Momentum is breaking towards McCain. Last Monday, 8 days before the election, Yahoo Politics, which has been doing a fair job of keeping up with the electoral map, had 366 electoral votes in those states solidly behind Obama and leaning towards Obama. On Thursday it was down to 333. Yesterday it was 316. Although admittedly there’s still a lot more to erase to get Obama below 270, combine the momentum factor with the undecideds and those lying to pollsters, and you have an upset in the making.
Of course, even in McCain wins today, it will be in the electoral vote and not in the popular vote. Expect then a major push by leading Democrats (including Hillary and Bill) to plead with electoral delegates to change their vote to “reflect the will of the people,” which will ultimately be unsuccessful but will bring a greater call – in a Democrat-controlled House and Senate – to abolish the electoral college.
But we have a long way to go to get there.
I know I’m going out on a limb here, but I absolutely believe a McCain victory is not only possible, but really will happen. If I turn out to be right, I will look like a prophet. If I’m wrong, I’ll just hope you’ll forget.
